22. European Stroke Conference 613 Acute stroke: emergency management, stroke units and complications Validation assessment of risk tools to predict outcome after thrombolytic therapy for acute ischemic stroke R.R. van Hooff1, K. Nieboer2, A. De Smedt3, M. Moens4, P.P. De Deyn5, J. De Keyser6, R. Brouns7 Universitair Ziekenhuis Brussel, Dept. of Neurology, Brussel, BELGIUM1, Universitair Ziek-enhuis Brussel, Dept. of Radiology, Brussel, BELGIUM2, Universitair Ziekenhuis Brussel, Dept. of Neurology, Brussel, BELGIUM3, Universitair Ziekenhuis Brussel, Dept. of Neurosurgery, Brussel, BELGIUM4, Middelheim General Hospital, ZNA, Dept. of Neurology/Memory Clinic, Antwerpen, BELGIUM5, Universitair Ziekenhuis Brussel, Dept. of Neurology, Brussel, BELGIUM6, Universi-tair Ziekenhuis Brussel, Dept. of Neurology, Brussel, BELGIUM7 Background—Several scores have been developed for predicting clinical outcome and risk of symp-tomatic intracranial hemorrhage (sICH) after intravenous recombinant tissue plasminogen activator, but external validation of these models in real life stroke populations is lacking. Methods—We used ROC curves to analyze the discriminative capacity of the s-TPI, MSS, HAT, SITS SICH, iScore, SEDAN, DRAGON and the GRASPS score for sICH and for the modified Rankin Scale score at 3 months poststroke. The reliability of the best performing prediction model was further examined with calibration curves. Separate analyses were performed for patients meet-ing the European license criteria for IV rtPA (N=60, 35.5%) and for patients thrombolyzed outside these criteria (N=109, 64.5%). Results— C-statistics were in the range of 0.70 to 0.85 for all risk stratification models (Table 1). Overall, the s-TPI yielded the best results for predicting functional outcome and sICH (Figure 1). Conclusions—All currently available clinical models for outcome prediction after thrombolysis for acute ischemic stroke showed adequate predictive value in patients treated according contemporary daily practice. The s-TPI had the best discriminatory ability and was well calibrated in our study population. 670 © 2013 S. Karger AG, Basel Scientific Programme
Karger_ESC London_2013
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